Following up on my post on leftist idiots, I’d like to highlight the following imbecile pattern of argumentation:
– You point out that Hillary broke the law.
– Your leftist interlocutor reminds you that Trump wants to fuck women.
– You shake your head.
If there were no consequences of such stupidity, you could laugh about it. Yet, this is precisely the pattern mainstream media follows. What, Hillary ran a private email server to get around FOIA requests? This is illegal, you say? Nah, it doesn’t matter because you are just trying to distract from the leaked Trump tape. (Needless to point out, the Trump tape is used to suppress revelations about Hillary and the Clinton Foundation.)
From then on, you can easily generalize the pattern of argumentation:
– Hillary broke the law when she did X.
– But Trump is a big meanie!
I tell you what, if the right to vote was tied to a basic test in deductive reasoning, Trump would win by a landslide.
Breaking the law is a skyscraper. Being mean is a bike shed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_triviality#Examples
Shillary is a fucking sociopath with zero remorse. I saw the way she handwaved her email issue at the last debate -it was outright sickening. “Oh, no biggie, that was a mistake, I was a bad girl, but I won’t do it again, pinky promise!”
I’m having a bet with my friends that Trumps is gonna win those upcoming U.S. elections with a significant majority. Trump is the “change” candidate, and this is one of his USPs.
btw. I won in a similar bet, when I was absolutely convinced, that the UK would vote in favor of Brexit despite mass media counter argumentation. And I was right. I absolutely looove being right! 😉
Contrary to what many politicians claimed afterwards, the polls regarding Brexit were actually very accurate (they predicted the result was going to be very close which it was; https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/). That means that if you were “absolutely conviced” people would vote for Leave it means you were actually wrong in your analysis because it was a very close result and noone who did not ignore the polls knew “being convinced” about either result was not in the cards.
In case you didn’t get me: imagine you plan to flip a coin and before you flip the coin you bet with your friend that heads will come up. You brag to your friend that you are “absolutely convinced that heads will come up”. Now imagine you flip the coin and heads comes up. Would you be able to brag that you were right with a straight face?
Of course, the bullshit liberal mainstream press is able to justify everything, instead of admitting that they have royally fucked up.
Your argument is not convincing at all because the outcome of the Brexit vote can’t be compared to tossing a fair coin. However, assume you toss a biased (!) coin of which it could be determined, by proper sampling, that it comes up heads 9/10 times. You round up 100 experts, of which 99 say that there is absolutely no doubt that the coin has come up tails. If the coin comes up heads, then maybe your experts aren’t so great. To draw a clearer parallel: let’s say 99 of 100 coin-tossing experts are ‘tailists’ that are so convinced that tail will come up that they are unable to properly study a biased coin.
By the way, I don’t think it is fair to state that the Brexit vote was close. The difference amounted to about 3%, which were well over one million registered votes.
I read that bookmakers/betting outlets put hillary at a 92% likelihood of winning. There will be a nice payday if Trump wins…
Your analogy would be correct if any expert or any media outlet ever said that “there is absolutely no doubt” that people would vote against Brexit. That just wasn’t the case. Anyone who wasn’t blinded by emotions always knew it will be close race (which it was; if you read my link you will see 3% is well within the margin of error of all polls).
You are splitting hairs. May I remind you that the media overwhelmingly claimed that the Stay vote would win out. Wouldn’t you say that it is highly suspicious that all major polls made the same kind of error? You would have a point had there been mainstream polls that overestimated (!) the Leave vote.
Back then, I was getting most of my information on Brexit from the two main news sources in my country (“Der Standard” and “Die Presse”) and both stated at the time that no clear prediction can be made. Saying that either result is more likely is far from a clear prediction, btw. Everyone who read the polls correctly back then, knew that both results were within the margin of error.
Whenever I heard someone being “sure” about either result I always knew that person had no clue because no informed person could have been sure about it beforehand (with Clinton Trump we have a similar situation..if you are totally convinced one of them wins you are simply going with your emotions and nothing more).
In that case, the Austrian press was more honest than pundits in the UK. I still contend that the mainstream press was heavily biased against Brexit. Of course you can’t be sure about the outcome of an uncertain event.